نشریه مطالعات راهبردی جهان اسلام
سال بیست و سوم شماره 1 (پیاپی 89، بهار 1401)

With the experience of direct confrontation in the 33-day war and the weaknesses it had in the "close combat" with the resistance, in the Syrian crisis, the Zionist regime tried to remove the threat from its peripheral area and internal security environment with successive airstrikes on the positions of the resistance and the Syrian army. holds . The numerous air attacks of the Zionist regime on Syrian territory in the past 9 years were first aimed at driving the resistance away from the borders of the occupied Golan, and then by focusing on the Qaim Bokmal crossing on the Iraq-Syria border, it had the intention of challenging the resistance corridor. The Zionist regime escaped from Musqatim's confrontation with the resistance by targeting Lebanon's Hezbollah shipments, which had the ability to target directly in the guerilla war based on the "close combat" doctrine. This regime actually intends to push Syria into an anarchic environment with its air strikes and provide security in the middle of its peripheral and internal environment. The Zionist regime considers the basis of its security to be the creation of an anarchic environment and numerous and successive attacks, and it is extremely afraid of guerrilla warfare based on "close combat" with high standards. The following article, by examining the process of the Zionist regime's attacks in Syria, aims to show that the pattern of the regime's attacks in Syria is based on distancing the resistance from its internal and peripheral security environment and is trying to get out of the geopolitical suffocation it is trapped in. In the meantime, the resistance must make the internal and peripheral security environment of the Zionist regime a meaningful priority in the asymmetric operations of jihadi groups and pay attention to the preparation of infrastructure.

Russia's aggressive action against Ukraine was carried out with the aim of restraining this country from joining NATO; However, this action of Russia was raised along with criticisms of NATO for not preventing the occurrence of this war, to the extent that this war is considered a turning point in NATO's organizational changes. Therefore, the main question of this research is, what changes will Russia's attack on Ukraine bring about in NATO's internal organization? The findings show that there are differences of opinion about strengthening or weakening NATO after the Ukraine war, so that on the one hand, the argument in favor of strengthening NATO is that NATO, due to the decision of countries to increase European defense spending, the declaration of the desire of countries such as Sweden and Finland to join NATO, the further strengthening of American cooperation with NATO and the expectation of strengthening British relations with NATO will be strengthened; While the opposite point of view believes that the weak effectiveness of NATO's deterrence, the Europeans' dissatisfaction with American unilateralism, the existence of NATO's economic infrastructure problems, and the difference between European members in the concept of European strategic independence will lead to the weakening of this military alliance from decision to action. However, in a general assessment, it is expected that with the prolongation of the Russian war against Ukraine and the impact of Europe's need for Russian energy, along with Europe's inability to restrain Russia, the second view will prevail.

The Ukraine war, which began with Russia's attack on Ukraine in February 2022, is considered an important point in the international order from the point of view of international relations, so that some consider it the beginning of a new cold war, while others consider it a possible prelude to World War III. Important approaches that show the importance of this war and most of the writings, besides addressing the causes of the start of the war, have also looked at its consequences from various political, economic, environmental and security aspects, especially food security. One of the important consequences of this war, in addition to the bilateral relations between Russia and Ukraine, can be on multilateral relations and the possibility of new fronts in the power structure and regional and global order, in this regard, Turkey's behavior with regard to its membership in NATO, its geopolitical position And geo-strategic is very important. Therefore, the main question of this article is, what has been Turkey's foreign policy towards the war in Ukraine? The main hypothesis of the article, using the historical-explanatory method and using the theoretical framework of realism and the approach of protecting national interests, is that the war in Ukraine, by creating simultaneous threats and opportunities for Turkey's national interests, has caused Turkey to adopt a policy of mediation and balance in order to reduce the threats and increase the opportunities of this war. In this regard, the findings of the article show that the war in Ukraine, while increasing Turkey's geostrategic importance in the field of geopolitics and energy transit, has enhanced Ankara's role as a third pole and mediator.

Currently, the Sadr movement is considered the most important and influential political-social movement in Iraq, and the leader of this movement; Moqtada Sadr has a prominent position among Iraqi politicians. The Sadr movement, which is rooted in the school of thought and practice of Ayatollah Martyr Seyyed Mohammad Sadr, in the years after 2003, gradually became one of the most important political movements in Iraq, and its young leader was able to turn the significant social capital of this movement into a great political capital. So much so that in the Iraqi parliamentary elections in 2018 and 2021, Sadr's movement became the axis of government formation in Iraq by winning the most parliamentary seats. After holding early Iraqi parliamentary elections in October 2021, while it was thought that the new Iraqi government would soon be formed and the political process would be completed due to the almost decisive victory of the Sadr movement and the acquisition of 73 seats by this movement, the process of forming a government faces serious obstacles. faced, and there is still no clear perspective for a lasting solution to Iraq's political deadlock and differences. This article, considering the premise that Sadr's movement and its leader are one of the main and most important factors in the emergence of the current situation, has chosen as its goal to examine Sadr's actions in recent developments. The findings of the article show that Moqtada Sadr's actions follow the pattern of populist actions and Moqtada Sadr tries to manage the political-social atmosphere of Iraq for his own benefit by adopting populist approaches in the fields of ideology, discourse and political action.

The escape of Ashraf Ghani and the return to power of the Taliban in Afghanistan brought the process of developments in this country to a new stage. After one year of the caretaker government of the Taliban, gaining international legitimacy is still the most important challenge of the Taliban leaders, and during this time, the inclusive government has not been formed. The lack of fair distribution of power in the second government of the Taliban and the emphasis of its leaders on the inclusiveness of the current government and the rejection of the leaders of the former government due to cooperation with the United States have caused the recognition of the current government by the countries of the world, even neighboring countries, not to be a priority. Of course, there has been more or less interaction and communication between the neighboring governments and the political leaders of the Taliban. Meanwhile, some understandings have also caused border disputes with neighboring countries. Regarding the border disputes between Iran and the current rulers of Afghanistan, while acknowledging the existence of some border and water disputes, the role of biased arbitration of colonial countries, especially the British, should be mentioned. At the current stage, with the coming of the Taliban to power and the disgraceful exit and defeat of the United States in Afghanistan, many efforts have been made to turn the border disputes between Iran and Afghanistan into border conflicts, and then through Iranophobia in Afghanistan and Afghanophobia and Talibanphobia in Iran, the two countries are practically divided. involved in ethnic-religious war and in another way to implement the constructive chaos project in Afghanistan and its neighboring countries.

Lebanon's elections have always been of great importance to Lebanon's domestic actors and regional and international actors due to its internal and external influence. Although this election is considered to be a suitable platform for displaying the power of internal parties and currents as well as foreign actors united by these Lebanese parties and currents due to the parliament-oriented political structure as well as the weak government structure and strong network society, it does not have the power to create structural changes in the distribution of power. It should be analyzed by understanding this fact. This article tries to answer the question regarding the holding of 2022 elections in this country, what are the special conditions and features and consequences of these elections. It seems that the most important conditions and special features of this period of elections are:holding elections in a critical economic situation, the continuation of the internal cohesion of resistance groups and the disintegration of rival currents, the participation of Sunnis without political authority, the decisive results of Christian-Christian competition, the increase in the mobility of groups civil and independent, the intensification of the destructive role of foreign countries and the continuation of political procrastination. Regarding the consequences of the election results, it can be stated as follows: stabilization of the position of the axis of resistance in Lebanon despite the intensification of destruction, continuation of the crisis situation in Lebanon, reduction of the legitimacy of the current Lebanese politicians, continuation of the presence of prime ministers with weak political support, deepening of the political divide, strengthening of the third movement. Increasing political and security movements of the Zionist regime against the resistance.

The 11th and 12th governments of the Islamic Republic of Iran were headed by Hojjat-ul-Islam Hassan Rouhani during the years 2013 to 2021. Based on the promises made in the elections as well as the existing international conditions, the Rouhani government had promised to connect with the West, remove international sanctions, reconcile with the world, and improve the economic situation and the movement of the centrifuge and the country's economy at the same time. Due to the fact that Rouhani knew the solution to the economic problems and fulfilling the election promises in interaction with the West, he started to tie all the country's problems to the issue of negotiation. The government's efforts finally led to the JCPOA between Iran and the 1+5 group in July 2014. This agreement led to a specific mechanism to limit Iran's nuclear programs, including changing the use of the Arak heavy water power plant, collecting most of the centrifuges from the Natanz and Fardo sites, and reducing uranium enrichment from 20% to 3.5%, but this issue didn’t satisfied Western governments and they sought to limit Iran's regional and missile programs. According to the nature of the Islamic Revolution and the principles of the foreign policy of the Islamic Republic of Iran, the theory of constructivism has been used to describe the performance of the foreign policy in Hassan Rouhani's government.